Middle East Risks Resurface: Supply Chain Disruptions and Key Insights

This is a stressful time for anyone managing a supply chain, and at Tive, our priority hasn't changed: helping you protect patients, consumers, and product integrity no matter what's unfolding across the globe.

The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting the two “connective tissues” of global logistics: Gulf air hubs and Gulf maritime routes. Major air routes in the region have been altered, constraining cargo capacity. At sea, risk in and around the Strait of Hormuz has surged, with vessel incidents, ships anchoring, and insurance coverage being pulled back. 

For teams shipping high-value or sensitive goods through these corridors, every hour without real-time shipment visibility is a liability.

So we put this update together for you: a clear, digestible breakdown of what's happening and practical guidance your team can act on as these Middle East risks continue to evolve.

Airspace Closures Are Now a Cargo Problem, Not Just a Travel Headline

• What’s happening: Key Gulf transit hubs (Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Doha) have been closed or severely restricted, with knock-on impacts worldwide. 
• Why shippers should care: The Gulf is a major intersection for air cargo, so prolonged restrictions can reduce lift and force longer routings and more handoffs. Reuters reports a 22% global reduction in air cargo capacity tied to the disruption (from perishables to plane parts).   
• Numbers to anchor on: Seven major Gulf and nearby hubs (including Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi) have seen about 21,300 flights canceled since the strikes on Iran started, according to Flightradar24 data cited by Reuters.​
• Operational implications (especially for pharma/food):
  
  • More “unknown dwell time” on tarmacs and in warehouses
  • More rebookings and diversions, which increases the odds of temperature excursions
  • More exceptions that require faster decisions from quality, logistics, and customer teams

What to Do This Week  

• Re-validate your lane assumptions for any shipments routing through UAE/Qatar hubs
• Pre-approve alternate routings with your 3PL and carrier, so you are not negotiating mid-disruption
• Tighten your “maximum dwell” thresholds for temperature-sensitive freight and escalate sooner

Maritime Risk Around the Strait of Hormuz Recalls 2024 Red Sea Disruptions 

• What’s happening: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical cargo artery — that moves 20 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for one-fifth of global petroleum consumption and LNG trade —has slowed sharply. Lloyd's List Intelligence reports that Hormuz transits are down roughly 81% (March 1 vs. February 22), with approximately 200 non-sanctioned, compliant tankers effectively stranded in the Gulf.
• Theft risks grow: Cargo theft  and tamper risks spike when shipments are unexpectedly idle. 
• Official security signals: UKMTO warned of elevated electronic interference, including disruption to AIS and other systems. JMIC also flagged ongoing GNSS/GPS interference with AIS anomalies.  
• Carrier posture matters: Maersk has stated it is suspending all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz until further notice, implying delays/rerouting for Arabian Gulf services.  

What to Do This Week

• Treat Gulf ocean routings as “plan B required,” even if they are not fully stopped
• Identify which SKUs can tolerate longer lead times vs. which must shift modes or routes
• Prepare claims/exception documentation now (photos, chain-of-custody, condition logs)

How Costs Will Move in Layers: Fuel, Insurance, Capacity, Then Surcharges

• What's happening: Middle East risks and the Strait of Hormuz disruption is driving shipping costs higher in a predictable sequence: fuel and voyage economics first, then insurance, then effective capacity tightening, and finally explicit surcharges hitting invoices. Each layer compounds the one before it.
• Fuel and voyage costs surging: VLCC charter rates on the benchmark Middle East–China route have nearly doubled to over $400,000/day. Persian Gulf–China crude freight is up 35% in a single assessment, and more than 4.5x year-to-date as ships reroute and burn more fuel.
• Insurance becoming a material line item: Major insurers are cancelling standard war-risk policies for the Gulf as of March 5. Premiums have surged from ~0.2% to as high as 1% of hull value and pushing per-voyage war-risk costs on a $100M tanker from ~$225K to as much as $1M.
• Effective capacity shrinking: Because Hormuz transits have essentially stopped and major carriers have suspended Gulf transits, that means longer reroutes and fewer voyages per vessel per year. That tightens supply even though the global fleet hasn't changed.
• Surcharges now hitting invoices: Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have rolled out war-risk and emergency conflict surcharges for Gulf-linked cargo. Expect continued introduction and upward revision of these fees for at least the next several months, with the sharpest pass-through on Gulf, Red Sea, and East Mediterranean  trades.

What to Do This Week 

• Audit your contracts for surcharge language (war risk, fuel, congestion, “exceptional circumstances”)
• Set internal expectations early: “Costs may jump even when transit times do not”
• Avoid last-minute mode flips without visibility. That’s how product gets lost in the shuffle

The Real Risk Is Decision Latency During Exceptions

Finally, when networks get shaky, the biggest failures happen in the gray zone: waiting for updates, waiting for approvals, waiting for someone to own the call.

• Where exceptions are likely to spike:
  
  • Route deviations from diversions (air and ocean)
  • Dwell-time creep at interim facilities
  • “Silent failures” when scans and milestone updates go dark
  • Higher theft and tamper risk when freight sits longer than planned
• What “good” looks like this week:
  
  • A single escalation path for temperature, delay, and security events
  • Pre-approved playbooks by lane and product class (2–8°C, CRT 15–25°C, ambient, high-value)
  • Faster customer communication with evidence, not guesses
• What to monitor daily (simple watchlist):
  
  • UKMTO/JMIC advisories and interference reports
  • Carrier service alerts and hub status (airlines, ocean lines)  
  • Strait of Hormuz transit counts and AIS vessel tracking data
  • War-risk premium movements and insurer policy updates
  • Brent and WTI crude price swings (early signal for fuel surcharges)
  • Port congestion and dwell-time trends at key Gulf and transshipment hubs
  • Surcharge announcements from major carriers (Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, Maersk)
  • Regional airspace restrictions or NOTAM updates affecting air freight corridors

How Tive is Supporting Customers  

This is not the week to add noise. It’s the week to reduce uncertainty.

If you already use Tive, think of it as your stability layer when routes change, dwell time stretches, and updates go quiet. We are here to help customers keep operations steady, protect product integrity, and communicate clearly.

• Make exceptions obvious, not debatable: During disruption, teams lose time debating what’s real. Use your Tive data to help align your team on the same location and condition story, so the conversation shifts from “what happened?” to “what do we do next?”
• Tighten temperature protection when dwell time grows: When hubs clog and handoffs multiply, temperature risk quietly (and quickly) rises. Tive supports customers by helping them tune thresholds and escalation rules so they catch drift early, not at delivery.
• Reduce blind spots across handoffs and interim storage: The most vulnerable moments are often the in-between moments. Customers lean on Tive to confirm arrivals, departures, and long stops so they can intervene before a delay becomes a spoilage or quality event.
• Give QA and customer teams clean evidence fast: During tense times, everyone wants answers right away. Tive helps customers pull a clear timeline of where a shipment went and how conditions behaved, which supports faster QA decisions and calmer customer updates.
• Support a calmer, faster rhythm: Disruptions create chaos when every team runs its own version of the facts. Customers use Tive to keep one shared operating picture, shorten escalations, and avoid decision pileups that compound delays. 

Our Final Thoughts

This situation is fluid; it could ease quickly or intensify with little warning. Either way, the most durable advantage right now is operational calm: knowing where your freight is, how it’s trending, and who owns the next decision when plans change.

For teams shipping pharma, perishables, and high-value goods, the goal right now is not perfect forecasting: it’s reducing preventable risk during delays, diversions, and extra handoffs. Clear escalation rules, a shared source of truth, and evidence-based communication go a long way when networks are under stress.

At Tive, we’re here to help you stay steady through the noise. That means supporting your team in tightening alert thresholds, monitoring high-risk lanes more closely with real-time tracking, and getting clean shipment timelines to the people who need them, fast. In the meantime, we will continue monitoring developments and sharing updates that are practical, measured, and useful.

If you’re a Tive customer and want help reviewing high-risk lanes, adjusting exception alerts, or setting a tighter monitoring cadence, reach out to your Tive team. We’ll work with you to keep critical shipments protected as conditions evolve.